Quick Hit: Managing Expectations

For those of you wondering how bad (or good) Senator McCain’s chances are and are confused by the endless horserace style coverage let me try to break it down simply.

Basically Obama is running hard in states Bush won in 2004. While the electoral map is largely the same, in terms of battleground states. Obama is putting McCain on defense in states he should be leading in and McCain is not returning the favor. Does that mean McCain can’t win. No. But he’s defending places like Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, and New Mexico. All of which were considered Red. If he loses one especially Virginia, the math gets extremely difficult for him. At the moment, previously blue states are not in jeopardy. So Obama can concentrate on winning the battlegrounds states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Notice I’ve dropped Michigan from that list, that’s because the McCain campaign has pulled out of Michigan for lack of resources.

So in short Mccain has a narrower path to the White House. Narrow but not impossible. Is this thing over? Absolutely not. Does McCain need something to change, you bet.

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One Response

  1. Dems should be very worried about Pennsylvania. Just my personal feelings.

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